China’sforeigntradeexpectedtoremainsurgingin2021,Reutersreported_the

原标题：China’s foreign trade expected to remain surging in 2021, Reuters reported

Even under the year the world’s economy hit hard by Covid-19 pandemic, China’s foreign trade in 2020 appeared as a “dark horse” in global trade, having managed to make up for the gap in the global industrial chain. Although it is still uncertain when the pandemic will end, the global demand is recovering along the way. Into 2021, China’s foreign trade is expected to stabilize at a high level.

The outlook for the Chinese yuan in 2021 is generally positive, and the risks of increased exchange rate fluctuations still need to be vigilant. The analysts believed that the sharp appreciation of the Chinese yuan may bring some pressure on China’s exports, but it is expected that the recovery of external demand and the resonance of global trade will still benefit exports; meantime, the appreciation of the Chinese yuan will in turn increase the willingness of domestic imports. In addition, the sustained recovery of China's economy will lead to a strong rebound of domestic demand, which will drive imports to a further rise.

On the other hand, the pandemic has greatly slowed down the expansion of global production capacity and has caused the contraction of production capacity in some countries, which means that global overcapacity after the pandemic will be significantly relieved.

The supply side that China took the lead in repairing, superimposed on the traditional peak of overseas festival demand, pushed up the year-on-year growth rate of China’s exports in November of 2020 to 21.1%, a nearly three-year high, with the trade surplus expanding to a record high. Analysts said that although the exaggerated growth rate of exports may not be able to reproduce, but thanks to the earliest recovery of the Chinese economy from the pandemic, the momentum of foreign trade growth is expected to last until the first half of 2021.

China’s recent Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that in 2021, macroeconomic policies should maintain continuity, stability and sustainability, in order to guarantee the necessary support for economic recovery. It is necessary to implement a high-level opening up policy, improve macroeconomic governance, strengthen international macro policy coordination, and relax market access.

The direction of global economic recovery is determined

Although there may be twists and turns in the global economic recovery in 2021, the direction is certain. According to UBS Securities, global GDP in 2021 may change from a drop of nearly 4% in 2020 to an increase of more than 6%, and global industrial production may change from a decline of 5.8% in 2020 to an increase of 6.2%. Therefore, it is expected that with the release of restrained overseas demand, economic activity and labor market recovery, global demand is expected to rebound sharply in 2021.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated in a latest report on the major economies of the Group of 20 (G20) that the global economy is recovering from the abyss of the coronavirus crisis, but countries with rising infection rates are showing signs of slowing down.

Hedging the “stress test” with greater openness

Obviously, China’s goal for foreign trade development is not limited to stability, it also places medium and long term plans for improving quality, optimizing structure and enhancing the competitiveness of foreign trade. Combating the pandemic, China has further strengthened its policy to cope with the complex and ever-changing external environment through diversified trade exchanges, greater openness, and internal and external “dual circulation”.

According to a research report by the Bank of China Research Institute, in the long run, the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) will reduce trade barriers and transaction costs, which is conducive to the stability of China’s economy and will increase its exports to countries in the region. In terms of imports, the implementation of high-level opening up and the RCEP agreement will promote the import diversification and expand the import of advanced technologies, equipment and parts.

With the lingering haze of the coronavirus pandemic and frequent challenges to the multilateral trading system, RCEP is settled in 2020 as scheduled. Industry insiders believe that this world’s largest free trade agreement will coordinate the different levels and fragmentation of different free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region. It is also expected to expand the diversified trade structure and improve China’s ability to cope with trade frictions by forming a wider range of trade and investment cooperation.游戏网

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